A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that polarised the nation and triggered turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Institutions Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where the losing side are unable to accept losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is imminent, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A great deal has taken place in universities but hardly any government figures or activists want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, none of the commentators advocates unity or the current situation. They composes two pieces that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments cover national emblems, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The aim is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate suggests an acknowledgement of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where the electorate report they prefer unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We want a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it may take place abruptly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a poor or a negligent secretary of state who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have reasonable, valid perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has has important lessons to acquire from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must participate in the debate, stated O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish matter."
